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Leading issues in Oromo, Oromia, Africa & world affairs. The last round of talks in December 2014 went nowhere.’ (African Arguments, 6th January 2015) Predicting conflict in South Sudan is easy. w=300" data-large-file=" w=460" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-209" src=" w=460&h=264" alt="O" width="460" height="264" srcset=" w=460&h=264 460w, w=150&h=86 150w, w=300&h=172 300w," sizes="(max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px" / ‘These are not achievements of which IGAD can be too proud.

Neighbouring states would have privileged their narrow, bilateral interests even more than they have done already.

This is probably IGAD’s last chance – another summit failure and the organization’s credibility and political capital will be almost spent.

The need to demonstrate ‘success’ may be counterproductive: IGAD may be tempted to spin any summit outcome positively, or threaten the parties to sign up to an agreement they are not ready to believe in.

A full-fledged proxy war between Sudan and Uganda could have developed months ago – there is still a real risk that it might.

These are not achievements of which IGAD can be too proud.

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